THE CORRIDOR WARS – THE DESPERATE SEARCH FOR PEACE

By : Lt Gen (R) Tariq Khan

‘War is God’s way of teaching Americans geography’, Anonymous.

The conflict in the Gulf has not turned out as the US would want or Israel had hoped. The consequences of their mindless war have begun to take effect. Iran will not submit and the US-Israeli duo are fast running out of options. This war will long be recognized as that specific moment in history, where global dominance, would shift from a unipolar world to a multi-polar one –  probably the final but unintended consequence of this conflict. The US would be seen as complicit in its own fall from grace, while Israel would have lost all moral authority to manipulate the US, affecting its own international standing. It would seem it is the end of a century where the US lorded over the world, but even much more than that, where western dominance would cease to control the eastern hemisphere. Whereas everyone wants to end the conflict in the Gulf and everyone is trying their level best to broker a peace, Iran stands out as the only nation that is not in search of a hurried resolution and has not requested for any quarter. Some still ask the question – who is winning? Iran has not changed its military posture from day 1 despite suffering horrendous causalities and infrastructure damage. They seemed prepared for the worst. The US has changed its stance a number of times – blowing hot, then cold, indicating confusion, desperation and frustration. We can at the least, safely assume, who is losing.

Iran has suffered massive destruction to its infrastructure but remains cohesive, resilient and collected. The US have lost operability in 13 bases within the region and lost an undisclosed number of troops.  Aircraft carriers, Abraham Lincoln has limped home, damaged and dysfunctional while Gerald Ford has to undertake repairs as well after fires broke out on it. A supply ship has been sunk and a US destroyer attacked. Reportedly 16 hi-tech aircrafts have been shot down. The US has withdrawn from many bases and instead found building to hide in amongst civilian structures. Iranian military spokesman has said, we shall not let the US run!! 

Despite all the diplomatic flurry and movement, both sides, i.e. The US-Israel alliance as well as Iran have taken maximalist positions and thus a ceasefire is not possible with these conditions on the table. Either the stated terms are met by Iran or the US-Israeli duo, or then there is some level of surrender by one side or the other. Trumps supposed list of 15 points as reported by the press, have been already rejected by Iran as ‘unreasonable’ and appear to be a document listing the conditions for surrender. Iran can never agree to those points. Meanwhile Iran has given its own updated list of its own demands/conditions for it to reconcile with the US. Israel has just continued bombing and said they are not part of the talks. Neither government, the US or Iran, can agree to the conditions set without suffering a humiliating political blow-back domestically. Iran has stated the following:

• Iran insists on reparation now to the tune of at least $1 bn.
• A full sanctions relief.
•  A withdrawal of US military presence from the Gulf.
• Broader regional linkages, i.e. end to conflicts involving allies.
• Control/security of the Hormuz Straits.  
• An international guarantee that hostilities would not be pursued against Iran by the US or Israel.

Trump has now said that if Iran does not come to terms with his demands, he will ‘Unleash hell’ on Iran. An expected outcome of what these so-called talks would finally end up into. Some members of the Congress have begun to approach Vice President J D Vance to invoke the 25^th amendment and that they feel that ‘the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office’ – declaring him unfit. However, this is not yet a Congressional formal position but may very well soon become one. Trump’s war on Iran has so far, apparently been prosecuted by people who are incompetent or unable to understand how to apply the principles of modern war. They have miscalculated from day one and continue to do so with impunity. The War has suddenly started to evolve around the Hormuz Straits which has taken on the position of the centre of gravity and the control of which if taken over by the US, may allow them the necessary face-saving end to hostilities. For Iran continued US presence in the Gulf has become a matter of vital strategic concern – failing to oust the Americans would be Iran’s nemesis. The biggest contradiction in the whole affair is that the Hormuz Straits were open before the conflict and now have become an objective of the US-Israeli alliance, i.e. to open them!!! A classic case of first creating the problem and then looking for ways to resolve the problem

The original US announcement of the war ending in 4 days, then to a week, later to a fortnight is evidence that the prosecutors of this war underestimated Iran, their capacity and their will to fight. Then Trump’s delusional demand of an ‘unconditional surrender’, indicates a childish play at theatre, looking for drama and fame. Numerous statements bordering on the ludicrous have been made from the Oval Office in numerous press conferences – threats, ultimatums and proposals that Iran has rejected out-rightly time and again. This war has surprised the West and totally paralysed the US.  This conflict will go down in history for changing the very principles of war and challenging military convention as taught and applied till now. Some of the key features which are defining the outcome of this conflict are:

1. Asymmetric warfare. This conflict has given new meaning to asymmetric warfare, where the US relied on high tech and massive destructive capacity. Iran on the other hand had structured its military strategy on decentralisation and established autonomous combat nodes that could react independently – as opposed to the age old teaching about the benefits of the unity of command. Iranian hardware was low price but with high impact. In expectation of massive destruction, the Iranians designed their military instrument to function from the sub-surface. Neither visible nor reachable. Thus two battles groups operated against each other in different spheres, i.e. above and below the surface but the latter could reach anywhere at will, the former could not.

b.More is Better. Warfare took on a competition of volume over recognised quality, thus changing the dynamics. The Iranians resorted to swarm applications at various targets which had to be intercepted. The Iranians had to be right only once from amongst hundreds of missiles while the defenders had to be a 100 % right all the time. Thus expenditure of the interceptors could not match the volume of the attacks – the US and Israel both arrived at culmination points while Iran is still to discover its own.

• Power Projection. The age old instruments of power projections became vulnerabilities which is why aircraft carriers had to be withdrawn. Air superiority no longer had the same effect and such hardware belonged to a different era. It was the time of unmanned precision attacks.

• Outdated Warfighting. The US-Israeli partnership were fighting a war of the yesteryears. This was a new combat domain where warfare was conducted under an electro-magnetic spectrum envelope. This provided a one-window operation to Iran through the Chinese BeiDou satellite system. Target acquisition, homing, engagement, early warning and interception etc were all built into one single cohesive articulation. This was similar to what Pakistan had done to India in Operation Sindoor.

• Production Limitations. War material production for Iran is cheap and cyclic and so they are capable of producing missiles to feed their strategy. The US can produce about a 100 hi-tech interceptor missiles a year, thus are running out resources. Iran has a logistics depth in Chinese provisions and Russian support, the US is relying on itself.

Trump brazenly gave a ultimatum to Iran that if the straits were not opened within 48 hr, he would strike their energy installations. Iran responded by saying they would retaliate by hitting all the energy hubs and desalination plants within the region. Trump’s confidantes advised him against carrying forward his ridiculous threat and explained to him the global disaster such a step would cause. They advised him to find ways to get out of the situation he had worked himself into without losing face. So a new deception manoeuvre was engineered using Pakistan as theatre. Jerad Kushner and Steve Whitkof were supposedly to travel to Islamabad. Reportedly they were to be joined by JD Vance later. It has been rumoured that some sort of peace talks were likely to get underway between the US and unknown Iranian representatives. Iran has so far rejected any talks anywhere, direct or indirect. Trump says the talks are ongoing – never before has the world seen such tomfoolery; someone is lying and we know it’s not Iran. Iran has repeatedly stated that it is not a party to any kind of negotiations while Trump has equally insisted that not only are the talks underway but that he is a recipient of some sort of valuable present given to him by the Iranian government. He did not elaborate. Some have assessed that Trump is buying time and that negotiations are only a ruse and that Trump will mount a land invasion while the talks are ongoing and the casus belie would be that since Iran has not/is not coming to terms, the US would be forced to mount an invasion. For now, the likely objective would be the Kharg Islands and the surrounding areas with a view to control the Hormuz Islands by force.

The US is currently concentrating troops and other resources at Diego Garcia with intent to escalate the conflict projected for the middle east. Iran’s views about the negotiations are that Trump is negotiating with himself alone. Since they do not trust him on account of the precedence he has already set very recently, they feel these announcements are a deception like in the past. There are other reports suggesting that these negotiations, are a method to control stock markets and oil prices and would probably remain good till this week end, i.e. Friday. Already statements have been made that if Iran does not come to terms, the war will be escalated. In all expectations, the US would attempt a ground invasion by the next week end, i.e.  4^th or 5^th of April.

If the US decides to go ahead with its offensive plans, in my own assessment, this would be the biggest miscalculation of this war and would probably be the last one. The architects of this plan, whoever they are, have not read or studied the fate of the British forces in Churchill’s blunder of the Dardanelles’. He was put out to pasture for 10 years after that debacle and the Anglo-French forces suffered a huge defeat. What will happen to Trump is anyone’s guess but his remaining in office would be highly questionable after a reverse here. 

The US landings will likely succeed with relative ease but would not be able to sustain presence. Causalities would be very high and it could become a military disaster. The Iranians in the meanwhile have threatened to capture the far side of the Straits which means the coastlines of Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE. Qatar has conveniently announced its neutrality and has said it has nothing to with this conflict and has reportedly asked the US to vacate their base in Qatar. In the coming conflict, Iran would also activate the Houthis and shut down Bab el Mandab disrupting internet cables thus bringing the world banking system into total darkness. The impact in a 24 hr disruption would be about $100 million in liquidity adjustments and $500 million market mark-to-market swings. Longer outages (2-3days) would run into billions in financial risk.

The consequences of this war so far can be measured and projected in two ways. The first is the impact on the belligerents and the second is the effect on global economy. So looking at the US military cost of war:

1. Military spending (US Estimates). The US Department of War told the Congress that the first 6 days of War cost $11.3bn. This amounts to $1.8bn per day.
2. It is estimated that by end of three weeks, it was possible it had touched $18.0bn.
3. Pentagon has so far requested for $200 bn.
4. Projections from Harvard’s Linda Bilmes and economists have warned that if the conflict expands the cost could exceed $1 trillion.

The second, impact on global economy, for now are:

1.  A projected cost of $25 bn has been estimated for repairing Gulf Energy infrastructure.
2.  Brent crude has jumped to $110/-barrel and peaked at $126/- per barrel.
3. Equity markets in Europe, US and Asia have seen up to 5% drops in major indices (Bloomberg 2026).
4. There is a visible flight to safe-haven assets, i.e. gold, USD, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc.
5. Trade and supply chain disruptions have been experienced. Rising shipping insurance costs. Delay in global manufacturing supply chain. Potential ripple effect will be felt on semiconductors, chemicals, and fertilizers.
6. Global growth estimated by IMF, to a reduction by up to .5%.

Iran on the other hand who was under sanctions before the war has in fact benefited by higher price of oil. Its oil export revenue has gone up by 30 %. It was originally selling at concessional prices of $45/barrel and is now selling at $105/barrel and increase of about 120% per barrel. Russia too has significantly gained from this conflict. Their oil and gas companies have been selling at a premium and have seen a profit margin increase by up to a 40%. The Russian ruble has strengthened as well as the State Budget, reducing the need to borrow.

Pakistan’s behaviour and conduct so far – tentative, ambiguous and on the fence which has in a way, benefitted it, making it a country of choice, as it is chosen to be a mediator. Pakistan has no stakes anywhere and even seems pliable to suggestions made by the US. The US chose Pakistan as a mediator since there are no controversial alignments that Pakistan projects within this region and is thus a convenient country. Pakistan is supposedly acting along with Turkey and Egypt in tandem and I pray that it is so, because of the obvious outcome that we will see, which can be shared equally by all three countries.  This could have been a great opportunity for Pakistan, however, whereas it may seem to be a strategic prize for now, Pakistan’s Government must understand, when there are no intentions of conducting negotiations; the US is only involving Pakistan in a manoeuvre of deceit and deception. Pakistan must not lend its offices for the US and Israel to project deceit and subterfuge – the role Pakistan plays today will be recorded in history and the Government must not sacrifice the honour and dignity of future generations for short-term gains that it sees for itself. This moment must not turn into a joke allowing Pakistan’s enemies an opportunity to bash Pakistan with.  A few days of basking in glory under the sun does not justify living in ignominy for ever. The conduct of our government will affect future relations within the region where generations of young Pakistani boys and girls would have to live for times to come and to inter-act and coexist. The current situation goes beyond politics and the State and the Nation must come first. Thus the government must be very careful how this process ends and what it leads to.

Pakistan must consolidate its populace into a cohesive entity based on national values and identity. A cash strapped government has limited sovereignty and is obliged to bend to the wishes of the lender of which there are many and Pakistan now has accumulated numerous.  A compromised Government cannot continue to keep the people irrelevant and make unilateral decisions at the global and regional level that are Governed more by financial obligations rather than the aspirations of the populace. Neither can this conflict be sacrificed at the altar of sectarian divides, especially when we the people, stand unified and firmly, behind Iran just as we would, if Israel threatens any other Islamic State in the region and that should be Pakistan’s unequivocal stated position.  It is time for the government to respond to the popular aspirations of the people and publically condemn the illegal and unjust war imposed on Iran. A statement must also go out, if nothing else, at the least, as moral support for those unfortunate victims of Israeli aggression in Southern Lebanon, who have been forced to evacuate while Israel, relentlessly annexes, even more territory. It is also now the right time to announce Pakistan’s withdrawal from the Board of Peace.  National identity demands this, Pakistan’s historical stance calls for it, our ideological preferences expect nothing less and the people, as in one body, all desire it. 

‘The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it’, George Orwell.